This will be prediction 1 for the 2016 presidential race. This week will be the high point of the Trump campaign. I note, before stating my reasons, that many past election seasons see dramatically different dynamics over the summer than over the rest of any particular primary season. analysis of this type of phenomenon can be found all over this site, or you can visit Poblano's current gig, fivethirtyeight.com.
As most pundits have shifted from disbelievers into believers of Trumps staying power, remember what you really think of most pundits and consider taking the contrarian viewpoint. I am also looking to Dr. Ben Carson's recent surge in polling and JEB!s launch of attack ads. All that is necessary to change the media narrative is for Carson to move into first place in just one early state for a couple of polls. This is not far fetched as he is currently in second. This will trigger one or two newscyles focusing on Carson's rise, Trumps decline, and unlimited comparisons to Newt Gingrich and other flavors. of the month from 2012. The optics of having Trump's picture alongside Gingich or Santorum, together with background segments on Carson, will provide JEB!, Kasich, and the others an opening to diminish Trump without the media giving him endless opportunity to respond. if Kasich or someone else can move up at the same time, it will be a hard slog for Trump to gain back the momentum he has enjoined over the past six weeks
I write this diary, not because it contains extraordinary analysis, but due to the encouragement of my wife and friends. They always ask for my take on politics because they find it more relevant than the pundits on tv. Fyi, I have worked on political campaigns at all levels of government, from county committee to presidential races. My roles were always supporting, such as Part of an advance team, or finances. I kept my ears and eyes open and learned whatever I could. For the current race, even a momentary Carson lead, would dramatically alter the narrative long enough to severely damage Trump who does not have institutional support.
Campaigns, like the news, have cycles. if anyone can break Trumps winning streak. It will create a new cycle which can reinforce itself, right now, the meme is, can be stopped. That translates to Trump is winning! If the meme becomes Who is next on top ? Then it's a whole new ball game. Gotta go. My daughter needs help with her math homework.
Hope you enjoyed this ramble
